The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has again raised its 2026 growth forecast for Uzbekistan's economy, from 6.8% in its summer report to 7.8%. The figures appear in the World Economic Outlook, published on October 12.
That suggests the republic could make more progress than in 2025, when its economy grew by 7.7%. At the same time, the fund's analysts expect growth to slow in 2027, to no more than 6.5%.
While the IMF's June report noted that its positive forecast for Uzbekistan rested on several factors, including strong domestic demand, investment activity, remittances and favorable global gold prices, the fund has not cited specific reasons for the latest revision.
Meanwhile, the Central Asian republic's statistics committee had earlier released data suggesting that the international experts' expectations could be considered modest. According to the Uzbek agency, the economy grew by 8.5% in the first half of this year compared with the same period of 2025. Nominal gross domestic product reached 1.07 quadrillion soums (about $90 billion).
In the updated report, IMF specialists also expect average annual inflation in Uzbekistan to fall from 8.8% to 6.9% this year and to 5.7% in 2027. Unemployment is projected to drop to 4.3% and 3.8%, respectively (in 2025, it was estimated at around 4.8%).
Despite the improved forecasts, Uzbekistan, with an expected 7.8%, is not the growth leader in Central Asia. IMF analysts project that Kyrgyzstan will grow by 9% in 2026.
Other countries in the region will also post positive dynamics, though not as rapid: Tajikistan at 7.3%, Kazakhstan at 4.4% and Turkmenistan at 2.4%.
The report also includes forecasts for the global economy. In particular, growth is expected to reach 3.1% this year and 3.4% in 2027. By comparison, global growth in 2025 was 3.5%.
The IMF has kept its forecasts relatively stable despite the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, trade restrictions and heightened uncertainty.
According to experts, the global economy has withstood a series of shocks thanks to the adaptation of the gasoline market, the rerouting of energy supplies and the use of accumulated oil reserves, which reduce dependence on raw materials. The development of artificial intelligence has also played an important role. Heavy investment in computing infrastructure, equipment and technology is supporting economic activity and international trade.
However, AI also poses one of the biggest risks. If the prospects of such technologies are overestimated, investment in the sector could well be cut. That, in turn, would drive down tech company share prices, reduce funding and tighten credit conditions.
