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Scientists at the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) have calculated end dates for COVID-19 epidemics in all countries around the world, including the countries of Central Asia. Published on the university’s website, the forecasts are updated daily to take account of new data.
The calculations are based on the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for disease spread, regressed with data from different countries.
According to the latest forecast (27 April), in Kazakhstan 97% of total expected cases will have occurred by 4 June, and 99% by 16 June, with the epidemic in the country coming to an end on 1 August. Uzbekistan will have had 99% of its cases on 30 April, 99% on 5 May, and 100% by 19 May. No forecasts are currently on the website for Kyrgyzstan (though our Russian website, publishing this story a little earlier, quoted an end date of 6 June) or for Tajikistan and Turkmenistan (both yet to report any official cases of COVID-19.
In Russia, the epidemic is forecast to be over by 18 August, and in the US by 4 September. The current date given for the world as a whole is 26 November.
The website includes a disclaimer stating that the content is strictly for educational and research purposes only and may contain errors. “The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries,” the disclaimer says.
“Readers must take any predictions with caution. Overly optimism [sic] based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines [sic] and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided,” it is stated.
A full paper discussing methodology is available on the website. The paper’s author cautions that policy changes within countries will of course have a major impact on the future evolution of each epidemic.
